France will have 1,672 more doctors in 2024, a “tremor”
Still too little, but a little more nonetheless. According to figures from the 2024 edition of the Atlas of medical demographics published this Wednesday by the Order of Physicians, the number of doctors in regular activity (excluding replacements and active retirees) in France increased by 0.8% to 199,089 practitioners as of January 1, 2024, or 1,672 doctors more than previous year.
While this number has been declining since 2010, with the exception of timid rebounds in 2018 and 2020, this slight increase allows us to return, today, to a level comparable to that observed in 2014. “There is a tremor in the demographics medical”, explained Doctor Jean-Marcel Mourgues, vice-president of the national council of the Order of Physicians, adding: “Doctors in regular activity are finally increasing. Not much, but they are increasing.” And this trend is expected to continue and “even grow” in the years to come.
48.1 years average age
Another rather encouraging signal from a demographic point of view, the average age of doctors continues to fall, to 48.1 years compared to 48.6 last year for doctors in regular practice.
Even if the physiognomy does not change radically, the medical density, that is to say the number of doctors per 100,000 inhabitants, has also increased slightly from 294.7 doctors last year to 296.4, This year. However, these figures should not really change between now and 2030. In terms of standardized medical density, which takes into account the aging of the population, “I think we are on a plateau”, which “should remain the mark of the decade 2020 to 2030”, estimates Doctor Mourgues.
“Afterwards, it is likely that from 2030”, the standardized medical density “will initially increase slowly, then more and more quickly”, with significant benefits for the population, he specifies.
Opening of the numerus clausus
Medical demography has suffered for years from the effects of the numerus clausus, a policy of controlling the number of medical students that began in the 1970s and which peaked in the 1990s, with only 3,500 students trained each year. This quota was loosened for the first time from the end of the 1990s (reaching 7,000 at the turn of the 2010s), then eliminated under President Emmanuel Macron. The number of students trained today reaches 11,000 (number of second year medical students), and must reach 12,000 in 2025.
Persistent medical deserts
On the other hand, other signals are not likely to reassure residents medical deserts. “Territorial inequalities are growing ever wider,” notes Doctor Mourgues. “The departments which have university hospitals, with rare exceptions, tend to increase and rejuvenate their medical population,” he explains. On the other hand, “there are departments rather on the outskirts of the region, often with a rural profile and an elderly population (an aggravating factor for the provision of care) which has a medical population which continues to age and which is not getting younger enough “.
According to the Atlas, these are “the departments located in the center of the metropolis, around the Paris Basin, which are the least well endowed”, such as Indre (145.9 doctors per 100,000 inhabitants), Eure (147.4) or Cher (152.2). “Conversely, the departments housing the large cities of France, as well as those located on the coasts or on the borders have the highest densities: Paris (697.4), Hautes-Alpes (432.4) or even the Rhône (414).
In terms of medical density per person over 65, the most degraded situations are found in Indre (514.8 doctors per 100,000 inhabitants over 65), Creuse (546.5) and Nièvre. (568.4).
A “voluntary” commitment program for interns
Tuesday, during his general policy speech, Michel Barnier estimated that today it was necessary to respond to “two immense challenges: the functioning of the hospital and the fight against medical deserts “. The tenant of Matignon announced the creation of a “voluntary” commitment program for medical interns so that they can temporarily practice in medical deserts, with the support of public authorities.
“We are going to work with all those who want to on what I will call a new program, a “Hippocratic program” for which interns, French and foreignerswould voluntarily commit, for a given period and thanks to the support of the State and communities, to practice in the territories which have the greatest shortage of doctors,” he declared.
Another measure mentioned by the Prime Minister, the more rapid deployment of “medical assistants”, “health buses”, “groups of health professionals”. He also expressed his desire to rely “on new technologies, telemedicine, remote monitoring, the use of artificial intelligence when useful”. But without neglecting “human contact”, by making greater use of “retired doctors, by allowing them to return to service with a favorable combination of remuneration and retirement”.
